Mitch Lewis’ Port Lincoln Cup Day Tips: Best bets and track insights

Summary of Best Bets:

Best Bet: Race 1 No.3 Oak Park Maddison
Next Best: Race 2 No.6 Fashizlemanizle
Value Bet: Race 9 No.9 Warm Breeze

Turf Talk:

• Rain is forecast through the meeting, with racing expected to take place on a Soft-rated surface.
• The rail remains in the True position following Wednesday’s meeting and with additional wear plus wet conditions, runners may look to edge away from the inside lanes in the straight.
• Port Lincoln is generally a fair circuit, though a slight advantage is often held by locally trained runners.

Key Stats:

• Travis Doudle’s stable boasts an outstanding 31.8% winning strike rate when travelling to Port Lincoln.
• Connor Murtagh continues to build an excellent record at the track with 8 winners from 44 rides and a POT of +31.7%.

Race by race overview

Race 1:

(3) Oak Park Maddison drops in grade after a solid Morphettville performance last start. Prior to that she was an impressive winner at Oakbank and this smaller field looks suitable. With a light weight after the apprentice claim and a favourable race setup, she maps to settle prominently and gets every chance to return to winning form. (4) Another Bride looks the main danger, while (2) Benign and (5) Bomba Cat round out the chances.

Selections:

(3) Oak Park Maddison
(4) Another Bride
(2) Benign
(5) Bomba Cat

Suggested Bet: (3) Oak Park Maddison WIN

Race 2:

(6) Fashizlemanizle resumes for his second preparation after placing in both career starts to date. His debut form measures up strongly for this level and he profiles to land in a forward position from the draw. The 3kg apprentice claim further enhances his chances and if he returns close to peak fitness, he looks very hard to run down. (8) Vasilias shapes as the main threat ahead of (1) El Explosivo and (5) Nouveau Marche.

Selections:

(6) Fashizlemanizle
(8) Vasilias
(1) El Explosivo
(5) Nouveau Marche

Suggested Bet: (6) Fashizlemanizle WIN

Race 9:

(9) Warm Breeze made a pleasing start for his new stable when finishing in the placings first-up, closing strongly through the line. He strips fitter second-up and the rise in distance looks ideal. Proven wet-track form is another key positive and his chances improve further should conditions deteriorate later in the program. (4) Overstrike, (11) The Last Dance and (1) Monarchs Brae look the main dangers.

Selections:

(9) Warm Breeze
(4) Overstrike
(11) The Last Dance
(1) Monarchs Brae

Suggested Bet: (9) Warm Breeze WIN