Oakbank Wednesday Preview: Mitch Lewis’ best bets and race-by-race analysis

Summary of Best Bets

• Best Bet: Race 6 (3) Shadowfax
• Value Bet: Race 4 (6) Limbering
• Next Best: Race 5 (2) Littlebourkestreet

Turf Talk

• Some light showers are forecast in the lead up and on race day, so while the track is expected to start as a Good 4, that may change depending on how much rain falls.
• The rail remains in the True position, as it normally is at Oakbank.
• Oakbank can be a tricky track for some runners, so it often pays to favour horses with prior experience at the venue.

Key stats:

• Michael Hickmott only brings the one runner to the meeting, but his team usually performs well here at Oakbank with a winning strike rate of 26.7% and a POT return of +31.3%.
• Kayla Crowther comes here in strong recent form after riding six winners last weekend. She also rides Oakbank well, striking at 17.9% with a POT of +13.7%.

Race by race overview

Race 1

(2) Kohala has looked close to a breakthrough win in his past three runs, finishing in the placings on each occasion, and this could be his chance to go one better. His recent form is solid and prior experience at Oakbank is another tick.

(11) Largs Legacy has finished second at her past two starts, maps to race on speed in what looks a moderately run race and could prove tough to run down.

(5) Valued has been well supported in similar races at his past few starts and should be around the mark again from a low barrier.

Selections:
(2) Kohala
(11) Largs Legacy
(5) Valued

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 2

(3) Discreetly Blue ran a close second in a similar race last start, making it two placings from his past three runs, and his form suggests a win is close. He maps for the right run around Oakbank and gets a great chance to break through.

(13) Love To Lie hit the placings on debut at Port Lincoln, will improve off that experience and maps for a soft run from the low draw.

(11) Boolcunda Dawn has been finding the line strongly in recent runs and the rise to 1400m looks suitable.

(7) Broke The Seal has been disappointing in two recent runs, but both were in stronger Maidens and this is an easier assignment.

Selections:
(3) Discreetly Blue
(13) Love To Lie
(11) Boolcunda Dawn
(7) Broke The Seal

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 3

(3) Tour De Moon hit the line impressively on debut at Balaklava in an eye-catching effort and with natural improvement off that run, plus a softer map here, he has the scope to take the next step.

(10) Tiddy Widdy has been competitive in stronger Maidens previously and finds a winnable race, although she will need some luck from a wide gate.

(2) Now East resumes after showing form in competitive Maidens last prep, which reads well for this, and he has the speed to race prominently despite the awkward barrier.

(13) Here She Is makes her debut here, she showed promise winning a trial at Morphettville recently and the stable usually perform strongly at this track.

Selections:

(3) Tour De Moon
(10) Tiddy Widdy
(2) Now East
(13) Here She Is

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 4

(6) Limbering did the work up on speed in a stronger race last start before tiring late, but she drops in grade here and maps for a much softer run from a low barrier. That gives her every chance to prove harder to catch this time around.

(4) In Your Words ran a close second at Port Lincoln last start, can get a soft run again and her track experience is a plus.

(1) Grinzinger Gold broke through in impressive fashion last time and while this is a rise in grade, she comes here full of confidence.

(3) Blue Isles resumes after placing here at her last run of the prep and should be strong late from a low draw.

Selections:
(6) Limbering
(4) In Your Words
(1) Grinzinger Gold
(3) Blue Isles

Suggested Bet: (6) Limbering - Win

Race 5

(2) Littlebourkestreet was good when resuming at Morphettville, running a close third in a race that has already produced solid form, and she looks to have upside second-up. The drop in grade is another positive and she appeals as a value play.

(3) Silver Lifestyle has placed in both runs this prep, strips fitter again third-up and maps for a lovely run.

(1) Tripod Terror only has the one win from 22 starts, but his recent form is sound with three straight placings, all in better company.

(4) Uncle Barry won easily as a well-backed favourite first-up for the new stable and may go on with the job now.

Selections:
(2) Littlebourkestreet
(3) Silver Lifestyle
(1) Tripod Terror
(4) Uncle Barry

Suggested Bet: (2) Littlebourkestreet - Win

Race 6

(3) Shadowfax was racing in terrific form when last at Oakbank, producing a win and two close seconds, before performing well in stronger races away from this track. He drops back in grade here and returns to a venue where he has already shown he is very effective. That looks an ideal set-up.

(5) Rich Lady is a consistent mare who has placed in both previous runs at Oakbank and should get every chance from a low barrier.

(4) Refreshing can improve second-up and looks suited dropping back in grade while racing on speed.

(6) Sha Na Na is another likely to be prominent in the run and also gets a more suitable race here.

Selections:
(3) Shadowfax
(5) Rich Lady
(4) Refreshing
(6) Sha Na Na

Suggested Bet: (3) Shadowfax - Win

Race 7

(2) Flyway has shown previously that he can fire fresh and looks set to resume in good order after recently winning a trial at Oakbank. From the inside barrier he should take up a prominent spot and gets his chance.

(1) Ekanite didn’t show much at Murray Bridge on stable debut, but can improve second-up and is back down in grade, although the wide draw adds some difficulty.

(6) Star Casino maps for a soft run on speed and while he may be better suited over further, he could still take catching.

(8) Territorian has run well at Oakbank in the past and now looks suited stepping up to 1400m at peak fitness.

Selections:
(2) Flyway
(1) Ekanite
(6) Star Casino
(8) Territorian

Suggested Bet: No Bet