Inside The Numbers: Racelab’s NZB Kiwi Assessment
Matt Collum runs the NZB Kiwi field through Racelab’s Prime Rating and Job To Do metrics, revealing a clear standout at Ellerslie and the runners who can challenge if the favourite underperforms.
Racelab’s Matt Collum has run the 2026 NZB Kiwi field through the full Racelab ratings framework to identify which runners are genuinely up to this level - and which may need everything to go right.
Using peak rating figures, last-start figures and the critical Job To Do (JTD) benchmark, the model provides a clear, data-driven snapshot of what's needed to win the NZB Kiwi at Ellerslie on Saturday. Rather than focusing purely on market position, this approach assesses historical performance profiles, weight-adjusted benchmarks and peak capability to determine who is best credentialed to win.
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Note: Green markers indicate the standout profile in the screenshot (elite 100/100 for Well Written; strong 95/95 for Belle Cheval).It's not difficult to see why Well Written is a $1.20 favourite in the 2026 NZB Kiwi. From a ratings perspective she's well clear of the JTD and has scope for further improvement. She really has to put in a poor run to give the others a chance. Romanoff and La Dorada have some high ratings from running 1st and 2nd respectively in the NZ Guineas on a heavy deck however their form has dropped off since. Belle Cheval is racing consistently with ratings in the 95-96 range and can figure in the finish. Very hard to go past the obvious pick here, Well Written.
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
