NZ Trial Watcher: Roll into the weekend with winners at Otaki
NZ Trial Watcher breaks down Otaki with tempo-driven analysis and value plays across the card, highlighting key chances in a series of moderate-run races.
Race 2: (MDN 2YO&UP 1600m)
Tempo: Moderate
(9) TERESA MAC can lead, a solid 2nd at Trentham enjoying a track pattern and race shape favour, another slow race expected, Sam Collett retains ride and now jumps off (5) LOOSE ENZ who was strongly backed last start at Avondale, the ride and early intent did not match the market support. After jumping well, he was restrained, taken back to the inside and subsequently left with too much to do in a sprint home. Joe Doyle can be positive to take a more forward position this time in a thin maiden race and offers value in the market.
Suggested Bet: LOOSE ENZ
Race 3: (R65 1200m)
Tempo: Moderate
With no natural leader, (10) CREMANT should take up the speed with Amber Riddell engaged as she did breaking maidens this track & distance at start two. That win followed a debut plunge ($15 > $5) when produced without a public trial. The ability is there, a wet track is the key to this Belardo-bred filly as she's been poor either sides of that one win. If the track is setting up for swoopers coming to the outside rail then the enigmatic (1) HE'S LUCID deserves consideration with his draw and his ability in these types of conditions.
Suggested Bet: CREMANT & HE'S LUCID
Race 4: (OPEN HCP 2100m)
Tempo: Average
Perfect race for (5) PROBOY to make the leap into open class company. A talented but frustrating horse early, he's an improved stayer this time in and received all the benefit of a shadow roll being applied last start to relax and savage the line winning at Wanganui. That was off 35 days, another break into this, weak race, small field, hard to beat.
Suggested Bet: PROBOY
Race 7: (R75 1400m)
Tempo: Moderate
(3) EXIT LEFT benefits from the scratching of OLD BILL BONE. A strong winning chance going to the lead and controlling this race after being snagged from a wide gate last start, a good on-speed win at Wanganui before that, expect they go forward to make use of the 2kg claim. Worth forgiving (8) SPERLARI latest effort, forced to make a long run wide on the track in the inferior ground at Hawera and didn't see out the mile. Run prior at Ellerslie was excellent after winning first-up. Back to 1400m suits and she has a good turn of foot.
Suggested Bet: EXIT LEFT
