William Reid Stakes @ Caulfield: Racelab’s roughie that can upset the apple cart

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a quick look at the William Reid Stakes using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year's race.

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In The Lab | William Reid Stakes | Group 1 WFA 1200m

The track – unique features of Caulfield 1200m course

• Rail True, Soft 5. Good 4 likely on the day
• On-pacers are advantaged at Caulfield with a win strike rate of 11%
• Lane 2 is performing best with a POT of 3.4%

The field:

Runners below have been highlighted if they have run the required rating (JTD) to win the William Reid in their last three starts:

Looking at key runners that have run the JTD previously, the market has found Jimmysstar, Jigsaw and Tropicus. Jimmysstar deserves to be favourite however from barrier one, he will take some steering from back in the field - that's not an ideal scenario to take $2.3! Jigsaw is airborne, on a 7-day back up and will make his own luck out in front. He will need to show his best at WFA level. Tropicus was impressive when winning the Oakleigh Plate after sitting wide - he will feel some pressure on-speed with Jigsaw and might struggle to finish off.

If we take a closer look at our top rated chances, Charm Stone is certainly appealing. Her stats are very impressive 14:5-1-2, $2,562,775 including two Group 1s! First-up she's 7:3-1-1, so definitely a gun fresh horse! Back in spring, she took out the Manikato by 2L in impressive fashion which was no fluke! From barrier three she will get a lovely run behind a genuine tempo and has the turn of foot to see out 1200 strongly - distance stats 7:3-0-1. The recent jump out at Cranbourne was solid and no doubt the camp will have her ready to fire. I'm very happy to be with Charm Stone at big odds!

Back Charm Stone (WIN)

Legend: