Warrnambool tips today: best bets & preview – Monday 9 March
Matt Welsh previews Monday’s Warrnambool meeting with his best bets, value runners and race-by-race analysis including Silver Capital, La Beau Gosse and Half Scotch.
Turf Talk
- Good 4 that will likely be upgraded at Warrnambool.
- Generally an advantage to be near the speed, especially with the rail back to the True.
Race 1
Give (1) Silver Capital a winning hope and think he’s over the odds at $9. Got back on a day you simply couldn’t make ground, on debut at Hamilton, but worked home some of the best late splits of the day. Has jumped-out very nicely twice this time in and suspect he rolls forward here first-up with the claim and should be most competitive.
The horse to beat is (5) Crickwood. Jump-outs have been excellent this time around. Struck a heavy track and missed the kick on debut, happy to forgive.
(7) Divine Reine has jumped-out nicely ahead of her debut. Has the speed to come across from the wide draw and settle outside the leader and should run a big race.
Happy to take on (9) Sapphire Reign as favourite. She was pretty weak with a soft lead first-up at Seymour. Concede this is easier but she looks too short at $2.15.
Suggested Bet: Silver Capital 1x3 EW. Quinella 1,5,7.
Race 4
Not an overly strong Maiden which presents a great opportunity for (5) Le Beau Gosse to make a winning start to his career. From the 1300m start they have a good run down the back straight before they begin turning, so despite drawing wide I’d expect Dylan Dunn to push forward and find a spot near the speed. He has shown good ability in recent trials and with four under his belt this campaign he should be fit enough for 1300m on debut.
(8) Zercardy looks the main danger and is better suited stepping to 1300m after the 1100m first-up run.
Suggested Bet: Backing Le Beau Gosse.
Race 5
Concede (12) Till Queen has a great hope here but she is also very short at $1.60.
Give (8) Half Scotch a great hope. She trialled super prior to her first-up run at Werribee where she bombed the start before getting home strongly in what was a fast 1100m Maiden. She has since been back to the jump-outs where she trialled with the earmuffs in run, which she will sport today, and she trialled nicely. Like the step to 1400m and the booking of Craig Newitt, who should look to have her positioned a little handier with the long run into the bend.
She looks over the odds at $8.
Suggested Bet: Half Scotch each-way.
