Stawell Cup Day Tips: Mitch's best bets and preview for April 5

Summary of Best Bets

Best Bet: Race 5 No.2 Yukaina

Next Best: Race 4 No.8 Jackie’s Maid

Value Bet: Race 8 No.12 Vincentina

Turf Talk

• The track is currently rated a Good 4, but clear and warm conditions are forecast so there is the potential of an upgrade to a firmer surface.
• The rail remains in the True position, as it has been at the previous two meetings.
• Even conditions are expected, so the track should play fairly with this setup.

Stats that matter

• Julius Sandhu’s stable continues to perform well with 22 winners from its last 100 starters and a POT return of +52.7%.
• Will Gordon has a positive record here at Stawell and his overall form is strong, riding 19 winners from his last 100 rides with a POT of +30.3%.

Race by race overview

Race 4

Was impressed with the way (8) Jackie’s Maid was travelling in her first-up win, but second-up she did not get much luck late when carrying a big weight. Up slightly in distance today will suit and she gets in slightly lighter.

(3) Danzsin resumes. He has had a pair of decent trials and expecting a positive ride from him here.

(1) Darts Daly rates highly in this field but will have to manage a big weight to be winning.

(5) Vaderlee potentially sets up for the run of the race jumping from barrier 3. He can get to the front softly and take control of the race.

Selections:
(8) Jackie’s Maid
(3) Danzsin
(1) Darts Daly
(5) Vaderlee

Suggested Bet: (8) Jackie’s Maid (Win)

Race 5

(2) Yukaina deserves to be short in this market based off what we have seen him display so far into his career. Undefeated in two runs so far, he comes into this race fresh having had a tick-over trial at Caulfield and maps to take up a favourable position on speed.

(6) My Zephyr won well last start when dropping in grade and looks suited rising slightly in distance.

(3) Wingsandpropellers is in form having won two in a row and maps for a positive run here again.

(4) Just Bolts boasts a good record at the 1100m distance and remains at this trip today.

Selections:
(2) Yukaina
(6) My Zephyr
(3) Wingsandpropellers
(4) Just Bolts

Suggested Bet: (2) Yukaina (Win)

Race 8

(12) Vincentina showed good improvement in her last start when rising to a suitable trip. She is now up to the 1600m trip which suits and is at peak fitness third-up. Look for her to be hitting the line strongly late.

(5) No Greater Vue was tough late last start when having to carry a big weight. Drops in distance today and rising to the 1600m should prove no challenge.

(4) Cecchetti kicks off this campaign down in grade from his last few. While he may be better over further when fitter, he would not come as a surprise.

(10) It’s All Calm broke through for a maiden win last start and has confidence now off that. She should race in a prominent position from barrier 1.

Selections:
(12) Vincentina
(5) No Greater Vue
(4) Cecchetti
(10) It’s All Calm

Suggested Bet: (12) Vincentina (Each-way)