Sale Tips: Two key plays stand out on testing heavy track
Heavy conditions and a forward pattern look key at Sale, with two runners shaping as strong plays on the program.
Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 5 - Baganov
- Value Bet: Race 8 - Corona Lad
Turf Talk
- The track was rated a Heavy 8 at time of writing and with some showers forecast for race day, expecting it to remain in the heavy range.
- The rail will be in the True position for the entire circuit.
- In similar wet conditions with the rail True, runners settling forward of midfield have generally held an advantage.
Stats that matter
- Reece Goodwin’s stable is in good form with 16 winners from its last 100 starters at a POT of +16.3%.
- Jordan Childs is riding in strong form with 18 winners from his last 100 rides at a POT of +20.7%.
Race by race overview
Race 5
(3) Baganov won well on debut racing on speed and having little trouble getting through Maiden grade. He appears progressive and maps to get another favourable run here, so he looks well placed to rise in class and win again.
(4) Freak Of Nature had excuses last start and the run had more merit than the finishing position suggests. He can bounce back sharply and is proven in wet ground.
(1) Akicita rates highly dropping slightly in grade, although he does have to cope with a big weight.
(7) Skellig Rock looks suited rising to 1200m third-up this preparation and can improve into the placings.
Selections:
(3) Baganov
(4) Freak Of Nature
(1) Akicita
(7) Skellig Rock
Suggested Bet: (3) Baganov (Win)
Race 8
(3) Corona Lad hit the line well last start and looks ideally suited by the rise in distance here. He is proven in wet conditions, should handle the heavy track and looks set to be strong late again.
(8) High Tempo is another who looks suited stepping up slightly in trip after a fast-finishing effort last start.
(9) You Never Can Tell is at peak fitness third-up and maps for a soft run from a low draw.
(2) Couldthisbetheone won well in similar grade last start and gets a positive race map again here.
Selections:
(3) Corona Lad
(8) High Tempo
(9) You Never Can Tell
(2) Couldthisbetheone
Suggested Bet: (3) Corona Lad (Win)
