Naracoorte Tips Today: Mitch Lewis’ best bets and value play

Summary of Best Bets

• Best Bet: Race 7 – (2) El Paso Citie
• Next Best: Race 3 – (2) Tanna
• Value Bet: Race 5 – (1) Swycho

Turf Talk

• Clear conditions forecast with the track rated a Soft 5 and expected to remain in that range
• Rail is +2m from 800m to 600m and True for the remainder
• Recent meetings in similar conditions have played fairly and a similar pattern is expected

Stats that matter

• Garret Lynch continues in strong form with 17 winners from his last 100 runners (POT +30.7%)
• Teagan Voorham flying under the radar with 14 winners from her last 100 rides (POT +42.3%)

Race by race overview

Race 3

(2) Tanna resumes here and maps perfectly from barrier 2 to land in a forward position with a positive rider engaged. He has won fresh previously and looks well placed to fire first up. (5) Private Jet also resumes and profiles similarly, having performed well fresh and boasting a strong record at Naracoorte. (8) Nudge ‘Em Along was a good winner last start at this level and can repeat that effort. (1) Rain Lord tired late last start but will strip fitter second up and can improve.

Selections:
(2) Tanna
(5) Private Jet
(8) Nudge ‘Em Along
(1) Rain Lord

Suggested Bet: (2) Tanna Win

Race 5

(1) Swycho was plain when resuming at Oakbank but improves sharply second up and drops significantly in grade from recent campaigns. If she finds her best, she is clearly the one to beat. (6) Hard Leaf won two starts back and wasn’t far away stepping up in class last time, now back to a more suitable level. (3) Following Sea maps to roll forward and take catching. (2) Fiorente Rules is hard to knock winning her past two and comes into this in form.

Selections:
(1) Swycho
(6) Hard Leaf
(3) Following Sea
(2) Fiorente Rules

Suggested Bet: (1) Swycho Win

Race 7

(2) El Paso Citie led for a long way in stronger company at Penola last start before tiring. She is much better suited back to 1200m and returns to her home track, which sets up ideally for a bounce-back performance. (7) Tour De Moon broke through two starts ago and was sound in a tougher race last time, this looks easier. (8) Thunderandlightning drops sharply in grade and will find this easier but must use the draw to stay in touch. (4) Setteveli can be inconsistent but has won two of his past four and is capable on his day.

Selections:
(2) El Paso Citie
(7) Tour De Moon
(8) Thunderandlightning
(4) Setteveli

Suggested Bet: (2) El Paso Citie Win