Mad Monday: Caulfield Guineas Day

For the Time Poor:

Track Summary:

• Rail true, drying deck, it was no disadvantage to be on speed, especially in circle races (races beyond 1200m).
• That said, it wasn't a significantly biased track. Just look at the Guineas where Autumn Boy came from off speed and inside, Planet Red back and wider.
• In the chute races (1200m and below) horses could certainly make ground; Point Barrow coming from second last being a key example.
• The two Group 1 mile races were run at a very slick tempo early, but I'd be tempering that a touch as they had the wind at their back from the mile chute. They were still a strong gallop, but that wind needs to be taken into account.

Moment of the Day:

Roll the Dice Racing/Globe

Paul Tatnell wrote about the raucous celebrations from Roll The Dice Racing on Saturday, not just because they won a Group 1 with their star galloper Globe, but they also got 50/1 about him taking out the Underwood Stakes!

I doubt even the most avid of Globe fans would've left Flemington a month ago when he was beaten into fourth in a BM100 thinking he would be beating Treasurethe Moment and Buckaroo to claim Group 1 glory just four weeks later.

But, racing's a funny game. Expect the unexpected. And that's why we all love it.

Only four horses greeted the starter in the Might And Power, a trend that is becoming a real concern for the race. And in what looked a tactical affair on paper, Blake Shinn showed his rival hoops why he's as good as anyone in the country.

It was a front-running masterclass on a galloper that can sustain a gallop. He pinched a couple of cheap sectionals early, but rather than trying to walk to the home bend and then sprint, he got rolling from the 800m mark and had his rivals stretching. That proved the winning move with Buckaroo and Treasurethe Moment unable to go with the rock-hard fit Globe.

It was a sentimental win with Roll The Dice Director Rob Norton paying tribute to the late Deane Lester, who originally brought a share in Globe, with Deane's wife Leanne remaining in the ownership.

Roll The Dice have brought so many smaller owners into racing and have given their clients plenty of success along the way. The best thing is they're genuinely good people.

Giga Kick back in the winner's circle

It had been been 881 days between drinks for the 20022 Everest winner, but Giga Kick was back to his winning ways in the Schillaci Stakes.

It certainly wasn't a vintage edition of the race, but it was terrific to see Clayton Douglas' star chestnut lengthen strongly late, much like he did at the track and trip in the Vain Stakes back in 2022, a race that started his trek to Everest glory.

He will need to go to another level again to be beating the top-liners in the Champions Sprint, but a hat tip to Clayton Douglas who has put so much work into this gelding.

Like father like son, but Observer a moral licked?

With the wind at their backs early in the race, they hiked along in the Guineas - around ten lengths above standard for the first 800 metres.

Autumn Boy settled into a lovely trailing position, three back on the fence under Damian Lane, who made it back-to-back Guineas wins. In the process, Autumn Boy replicated the deeds of his sire, The Autumn Sun, who was dominant in winning the 2018 edition of the race.

A pair in front of Autumn Boy in the run was Observer, who travelled sweetly in the run before having absolutely no luck around the home bend and early in the straight. It was a trainwreck for those financially invested, the race long over once he finally got clear and flashed into third.

It's hard to be too critical of Ethan Brown, just as he was trying to squeeze into a gap, Hillier layed in on top of him, shutting the gate and ending the colt's winning hopes.

Would he have won? That's subjective. But he was travelling like the winner on the turn and the way he picked up late suggests he would've gone mighty close, at the very least.

Time For A Stiff Drink And A Lie Down...

Anyone who backed Whisky On The Hill

In the 152.99 seconds it took to run the Herbert Power, Whisky On The Hill saw daylight for about five of them!

He was all dressed up with nowhere to go; a hard watch for anyone that backed the Glen Thompson-trained gelding.

World Pool Oh Too Good backers

As a punter, you never knock back a winner, but those who backed Oh Too Good on the tote got a rude shock when Kevin Daffy's star mare paid $2.05 on World Pool! For the record, she started $2.80 with plenty of bookies and jumped $3 on the Exchange - a fair ol' haircut!

The evidence is clear: avoid the World Pool if you're backing horses at the pointy end of the market. The only value left for recreational punters lies with the longer-priced runners.

The bigger teams and global players are aggressively attacking the top of the market - horses with superior ratings profiles and coming out of high-rating races - and they’re unloading very late. Those prices often disintegrate as the race is running, which doesn't marry up with the World Pool’s marketing tagline promising “stable dividends.”

In good news, I believe there are positive changes coming relating to take-out rates on the World Pool. Standby.

Of note from the ring:

Further to the above, the main betting point from Saturday was the World Pool tote crunch on a range of horses at the pointy end of the market.

• Race 4 – Oh Too Good jumped $2.05 on World Pool but the Starting Price (SP) was $2.70
• Race 5 – King Zephyr went off $1.45 on World Pool (SP $1.65)
• Race 6 – Treasurethe Moment $1.30 (SP $1.60)
• Race 7 – Sepals $2.50 (SP $2.15)
• Race 8 – Wodeton $2.70 (SP $2.90), Autumn Boy $3.35 (SP $4.20)
• Race 9 – Niance $3.15 (SP $4.40)
• Race 10 – She’s Bulletproof $3.50 (SP $3.90).

Many of which tightened up as the race was being run, no doubt to the chagrin of backers.

The best backed runner of the day looked to be Point Barrow who impressively took out race two, she was $3 + into around $2.40.

The Flashing Light:

Pondalowie (r4)  - I mentioned last week out of her Rose Of Kingston run she was airborne and just needed to draw a gate, and guess what? She's still airborne; and she still just needs to draw a gate. The Vase was run at a very sedate tempo so getting back to last was never going to work, but she charged home the best last 200m split of the meeting - it was a remarkable effort to get as close as she did.

Vestas (r10) - A huge return from Clint McDonald's mare. She got a mile back in a race dominated on speed before charging home into second. She's going to be awfully hard to beat next start, the only problem is every man and their dog will have her in their blackbook!

Forgive Me:

Caulfield Guineas (r8) - Nepotism got a mile back and wasn't a winning hope by the time they reached the halfway point. However, he worked through his gears nicely early in the straight, making good ground, before being stopped in his tracks the last 100m or so. His run was better than the seventh position would suggest.