Is it Angel's Rupert Clarke to lose?

Weights, ratings and an elite last-start figure point to a clear top seed - even if the map asks a question.

On exposed form, it’s difficult to mount an articulate case against Angel Capital as the most likely winner in Saturday’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. The lightly-raced sprinter established himself as a progressive star among a weak division with a blistering first-up win in the Chautauqua Stakes at The Valley a fortnight ago.

The sustained speed over an honestly run six furlongs he produced was of elite quality. On performance ratings, the figure returned was the best last-start number of any runner in this field, and sectional times suggest that he’ll only improve over 1400 metres under handicap conditions.

The logical query to Angel Capital’s chances is his likely position in transit. Without fierce gate speed, it’s almost certain that he will have to sustain an extended sprint from the rear of the field to win this race. The pace will be honest, as is typical of a Group 1 handicap, but as a general rule, betting on horses that settle at the rear of the field is not profitable in the long term.

Despite the obvious disadvantage of his racing pattern, his capacity to sustain a high-calibre sprint keeps him firmly in a position of authority over this field.

WATCH: Angel Capital obliterated his rivals at The Valley

The Main Rival

The benchmark of the established performers is Another Wil, a Group 1 winner and runner-up in this race last year. He was well-supported in the Memsie Stakes, a stronger race than this, but failed to produce his best and now shoulders 59kg under handicap conditions. He is clearly the highest-credentialled runner and, to this point, the best, but he will need to return to the pinnacle of his ability to surmount Angel Capital, who has beaten the handicapper with a light weight of 53.5kg. Despite an underwhelming performance in the Memsie Stakes, it’s impossible to discount his place in the market, and I’ve duly rated him as an $8.00 chance.

Others in the Mix

Sepals was a dominant resuming winner, scoring by more than four lengths in a race run at a deceptively slow pace. He was suitably positioned outside the leader, with thirteen lengths covering the field, and thus the slower-than-standard early pace to the 800-metre mark exaggerated his margin at the finish. A stronger pace is assured in a Group 1 handicap, and he looks unsuited having drawn awkwardly in barrier 16. His place in the market seems vulnerable at this stage. I’ve assessed Sepals as an $8.50 chance in this race, and an opposable runner.

WATCH: Sepals' first-up win

Miss Roumbini was posted wide throughout in the Cockram Stakes yet bravely stuck on to finish second behind Magic Time, who herself won this race two years ago. She’s an improving mare and, with the right run, has the scope to elevate to a new peak rating and be right in the finish. On my assessment, she profiles as a $12.00 chance.

Feroce, the Australian Guineas winner, warrants respect as a winning chance, having defeated Sepals in that race, who’s now the second favourite in this contest. Versatile in his racing style, he can assume a forward position and, if he reproduces his second-up form, he’s certainly a contender. I’ve assessed Feroce as a $23.00 chance.

Race Shape & Verdict

A typical to strong pace is seemingly the most likely scenario, and the map sets up awkwardly for Angel Capital and his most highly rated opposition. Angel Capital will settle slightly worse than midfield in the three-wide running line before unravelling his sprint at the two-furlong pole.

Verdict: On weights, ratings, and despite the projected race shape, Angel Capital is clearly the horse they all have to beat. My assessed price: $3.50. If anything longer than $4.00 is available, he represents solid betting value.