Will Elford's Sale Preview: Best bets, value plays and full analysis

Summary of Best Bets

Best Bet: R6 Rosa Aotearoa (2)

Next Best: R1 Good Harmony (8)

Race 1

Good Harmony (8) was restrained to the rear at Bendigo last start, then finished off in the meeting’s fastest closing sectionals, suggesting that she’s capable of running to a new peak if afforded the opportunity. She draws well here and would only need to reproduce her established level. Corviglia (3) was excellent on debut and then again first up from a spell last time. He will appreciate more ground in time, and may not have the turn of foot to come from last if the pace is only slow to moderate. Sonic Belle (9) finished strongly in a maiden that rated well, but would need to improve sharply. She can settle a little closer in this. The blinkers go on Pronounced (5) for the first time. He is a big, grinding stayer and may find Good Harmony a touch sharp.

Selections:
(8) Good Harmony
(3) Corviglia
(9) Sonic Belle
(5) Pronounced

Suggested Bet: Good Harmony (8)

Race 2

Lauberhorn (4) has trialled exceptionally well and has been heavily supported. Holding Captive (2) made a good debut last start. Galactic Force (1) was heavily supported last time, even money in places, and was not given every chance to win. Can improve. Interrogate (3) looks as though he may be looking for more ground.

Selections:
(4) Lauberhorn
(2) Holding Captive
(1) Galactic Force
(3) Interrogate

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 3

Fatty Fin (3) has been well supported, and rightly so, after two good runs to start her career. She’s Got The Cash (9) has run well fresh before and has trialled nicely leading in. Mywifeisnothere (2) improved last start. Just For Kicks (4) has been supported early, and the stable may be expecting a strong debut.

Selections:
(3) Fatty Fin
(9) She’s Got The Cash
(2) Mywifeisnothere
(4) Just For Kicks

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 4

Mad About Magnus (9) has trialled superbly and looks ready for a big debut. Bark (1) has switched stables since last preparation and has trialled very well. Cattle Camp (3) has also trialled well and is well related. Nar Nar Goon (2) had trialled well leading into his first-up run, where he disappointed, though it was a strong maiden.

Selections:
(9) Mad About Magnus
(1) Bark
(3) Cattle Camp
(2) Nar Nar Goon

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 5

Choir Point (6) competed at stakes level last campaign, so this is a much easier assignment. He may not eventuate into a five-furlong horse, but he can win this on class alone. Mainmankash (4) is very quick and may be able to outpace Choir Point over five furlongs. He ran quick time at Bairnsdale. Freshen (7) won on debut at Moe on a day when leading was advantageous. That was a strong rating, and he beat Kippis, who is a nice horse. Dapper Darri (1) won fresh at Sandown last preparation. He is awkwardly drawn and has an inexperienced apprentice aboard.

Selections:
(6) Choir Point
(4) Mainmankash
(7) Freshen
(1) Dapper Darri

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 6

Rosa Aotearoa (2) has improved markedly since joining the Reece Goodwin stable. She should dictate the pace, and her last-start rating suggests she is destined for better races than this. One of the better bets that I have seen in a few weeks. I made her $1.50, and it would surprise me if she were beaten. Radical Dude (5) is the main danger. Two To Tango (7) stayed on well when the pace collapsed to break her maiden. She will need to improve to win. The Mansman (4) has been good first up previously.

Selections:
(2) Rosa Aotearoa
(5) Radical Dude
(7) Two To Tango
(4) The Mansman

Suggested Bet: Rosa Aotearoa (2)

Race 7

If Axiom (7) can hold a position from barrier one, he is ready to peak fifth up. Immerse (5) was well beaten last start, but can improve quickly with more ground. Small Town Hero (3) should be able to lead comfortably and comes here off a win. Blue Cowboy (2) may find this a little sharp, but is talented.

Selections:
(7) Axiom
(5) Immerse
(3) Small Town Hero
(2) Blue Cowboy

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 8

Sabi Storm (1) finished strongly after being restrained from a wide draw. It would not surprise to see him ridden more aggressively to find the lead. Winter Nights (2)’ final 400 metres on debut was that of a good horse. He can settle a little closer from a good draw. Madesian (3) was below expectations last start but can bounce back quickly. Cyclone Harmony (5) finished strongly last start and can improve by settling closer to the speed.

Selections:
(1) Sabi Storm
(2) Winter Nights
(3) Madesian
(5) Cyclone Harmony

Suggested Bet: No Bet