Good Will Hunting: Zipping Classic

She’s A Hustler has been well supported since markets opened on Wednesday afternoon, settling just north of 2/1. She’s hugely talented and brings a strong profile into this, having won six of her ten starts and finishing runner-up in the other four. Despite her consistency, she’s yet to produce a performance rating that justifies her current quote. That said, it’s fair to use the market's expected rating from her last start as a guide to the level she might reach here. Even so, the current price being bet about her is poison, and I couldn’t entertain it.

Light Infantry Man steps beyond 2000 metres for the first time in his career. Imported as a European miler who then won an Australian Cup, he’s now being asked to stretch to a mile and a half, a very different test, and one I’m not convinced he’s looking for. He’s an extremely difficult runner to price because of the uncertainty surrounding the level of form he’s likely to produce. On exposed form, he’s the class of the race, an Australian Cup winner earlier this year and fifth in the Cox Plate. You could make a perfectly sound case for marking him favourite and betting accordingly, but the 2400-metre query is enough for me to stay out.

Alalcance, who was a beaten favourite in the Sydney Cup, is an intriguing runner. She settled midfield in the Matriarch, unusual for Gai Waterhouse runners, and profiles as if a mile and a half is absolutely necessary for her to produce her best. She’s certainly capable of producing the level required to win a Zipping Classic, though she does need to improve on her third placing in mares’ grade last start. However, that run came 64 days between starts on a deteriorating track, and it may have been exactly what she needed to peak on Saturday.

Star Vega lacks early speed and barrier 3 does him no favours, but he’s third up and closed well behind Howlin’ Rain in the Moe Cup. He’s armed with a sharp sprint, and around 40/1, he’s not the worst.

For the best bet on the program, Different Gravy stands out in the Melbourne Classic, coming off an emphatic Cup Day win at Flemington.

He’s unlikely to settle as far back as he did there and should be able to hold a midfield position from barrier five. Given the authority of that victory, it’s entirely reasonable to expect him to start odds-on against what looks a fairly basic group of three-year-olds. In time, I can see Different Gravy shaping as a genuine South Australian Derby prospect next year.