Geelong Wednesday Tips: One early play on a competitive card

Race by race overview

Race 1

(1) Autumn Charm has had early support on debut. Bred to appreciate further and drawn wide, she doesn’t look likely to race prominently.

(2) East Indies was given plenty to do at Pakenham on resumption and can improve quickly.

(7) Velocite Belle is very green and may need the experience.

Selections:
(1) Autumn Charm
(2) East Indies
(7) Velocite Belle

Race 2

(1) Bonus Season missed the start for Emily Pozman when resuming, but is unlikely to make that mistake again under Jordan Childs. She has led previously, so settling in the first four is more than reasonable to expect.

(4) Farakta made a good debut at Pakenham, but I’d expect the market to trend toward Bonus Season before they jump.

(7) Tisseyre started shorter than Bonus Season when they met at Sale. She’ll appreciate further, but is a chance to upset the favourite.

(6) Kokeshi ran to a strong level on resumption and was only fair last start, though five furlongs may have been a touch sharp.

Selections:
(1) Bonus Season
(4) Farakta
(7) Tisseyre
(6) Kokeshi

Suggested Bet: Bonus Season (1)

Race 3

(5) Pasadena was good on debut, was sent for a spell, and has returned well at the jump-outs. Even money in places is far too short, but she still has to be favourite.

(8) Boa Vista hasn’t raced in 340 days but has shown ability in three starts and has jumped out well.

(1) I’m Da Boss was good on debut despite starting at big odds. He was well positioned relative to the pace, though.

(6) Tagamate sat close to a strong speed first-up and can make the pace here.

Selections:
(5) Pasadena
(8) Boa Vista
(1) I’m Da Boss
(6) Tagamate

Race 4

(1) Houdini has been in great form for Gavin Bedggood this campaign. He’ll race prominently and regains Ethan Brown.

(4) Lario was well handled by Zakouma last start. There should be more between Houdini and Lario in the market.

(3) Diamond Gust was well beaten by Salty Pearl last start, but this is a drop in grade and he won well the start prior. It wouldn’t surprise to see him peak here.

(7) Move The Torana ran well to win at this course last start. A repeat makes her competitive.

Selections:
(1) Houdini
(4) Lario
(3) Diamond Gust
(7) Move The Torana

Race 5

(4) Brutal Tempo was heavily supported on debut and finished strongly into third. Seven furlongs will suit him better.

(9) Upstage has plenty of talent but has been slow away consistently. At 6/4, there’s no great incentive to take the short quote.

(8) Simply Gold might find seven furlongs a touch sharp, but is talented enough.

(7) Silky Seth comes through a race where three of the runners have already produced subsequent winners.

Selections:
(4) Brutal Tempo
(9) Upstage
(8) Simply Gold
(7) Silky Seth

Race 6

(4) Empire Song raced poorly at Caulfield, but it was a high-pressure race and he was first-up. He can improve quickly.

(3) Bruiser Murphy will appreciate more ground than this. He finished very strongly from the rear in a slow race at Pakenham last start.

Selections:
(4) Empire Song
(3) Bruiser Murphy

Race 7

(9) Simply Outrageous returned better than ever first-up, then was shuffled back to the rear at Pakenham. He can settle just off the speed and is poised to peak again.

(8) Pula was beaten in a speed test at Sandown last start. I’m not convinced the drop in trip suits, and the map looks tricky.

(2) Vianarra is reliable and races on pace.

(5) Quello Dorato can improve quickly after a poor first-up run.

Selections:
(9) Simply Outrageous
(8) Pula
(2) Vianarra
(5) Quello Dorato

Race 8

(5) Street Conqueror improved last start and should appreciate a suitable run.

(7) Dobkins raced wide and won well last start. She’ll only improve second-up and can settle forward of midfield from an inside draw.

(11) Love Symbol was better than it reads on paper on Australian debut.

(8) Sussex Duchess will appreciate a strong tempo, which looks likely.

Selections:
(5) Street Conqueror
(7) Dobkins
(11) Love Symbol
(8) Sussex Duchess