Wind, rail and on-speed pattern shape a tricky Super Saturday at Flemington

The pattern looked pretty obvious: on-speed and near the rail was the place to be.

Part of that may have been the wind. There appeared to be a helping breeze pushing runners around the home bend, which made it even harder for anything circling wide to sustain a run. Whether wind-assisted, track-related or a bit of both, the reality was the same: leaders and rail runners had a big edge all day.

Arrows show the direction of the southerly wind on Saturday.

The evidence was everywhere.

Whether the tempo was moderate – as we saw with Sass Appeal (Race 5) – or absolutely brutal – like Arcora (Race 10) – those up on the speed were incredibly hard to run down.

Even the Newmarket told the same story. The race was completely controlled by runners in lanes 1–4, with Craig Newitt owning the race on Caballus.

Arrow are on the first four over the line in the Newmarket.

That’s not to take anything away from the winner, but it does make the effort of Tentyris worth forgiving. The colt was the clear pick of the horses making ground from the back before pulling up with cardiac arrhythmia, which further excuses the performance.

One horse I’d be a little wary of going forward is Angel Capital. Yes, he probably finishes closer with even luck, but he was off the bridle and under pressure a long way from home before picking up late. Given he was racing in the superior ground, there’s a risk he gets over-bet next start.

Buy

Diameter (Race 6)
Not the deepest race on the program, but I liked the way Diameter closed off. The visual needs context – his last 400m ranked just the 68th fastest of the meeting – but this race was run at a genuine gallop early over 1400m. He shapes like a horse crying out for a mile, and that’s where he becomes interesting.

Steparty & Sabaj – All-Star Mile
As expected, the All-Star Mile was run at a genuine tempo with Pride Of Jenni rolling along out in front.

The Tasmanian trip appears to have done Steparty the world of good. He covered ground, did the donkey work outside the leader and still stuck on bravely to the line.

Sabaj also ran a terrific race at Group 1 weight-for-age level for the first time. The obvious next stop looks the Doncaster Mile, and historically horses coming out of the All-Star Mile have performed extremely well in that race.

Too Darn Discreet (Race 8)
Huge effort given the pattern. She got a mile back but still rattled home with the 7th fastest last 200m of the meeting. Once she hits form she tends to hold it through a preparation. Follow her next time. Ideally back at Flemington, though the Sunline Stakes at Caulfield looks the logical next target.

Hold

Café Millenium (Race 4)
His race was effectively cooked before the gates opened given the pattern. Sitting three deep without cover only made things harder, yet he stuck on well late. Still looks capable of winning another 1400m race this prep.

Philia (Race 8)
If you backed this David Vandyke mare you probably needed a stiff drink afterwards. The Matron Stakes was a mess. She never saw daylight and went to the line largely hard held.

Sell

She’s An Artist (Race 1)
The hype train has officially left the station.

The numbers tell the story. She produced sharp figures early in her career and beat a handy field down the straight at her second start, but she hasn’t come close to reproducing that level since.

She had every chance to get past Verdoux on Saturday and couldn’t do it.

She’s a handy horse, no doubt, but $1.70 in town again anytime soon?

That would be a brave market.