Flemington: Buy, Hold or Sell?

Margins lie. Times, tempo and the eye reveal the truth.

Saturday was a meeting of mixed tempos, rides shaped by bigger targets and performances that demand deeper reading.

Forget the surface view.

Who do we stamp? Who stays under the microscope?

Buy: Race 2 – Seafall

This was run at a genuine tempo and, relative to grade BM78, I trust the form.

Seafall has now had five runs for the Hayes camp and her last two have been solid. She settled a fair way back, built through her gears and hit the line with purpose.

She looks ready to win.

Hold: Race 3 – Ole Dancer and the Thousand Guineas formline

Let’s be honest. This was effectively a paid barrier trial.

Sass Appeal crawled, 11 lengths below standard to the 800m, and the race shape did not suit anything ridden cold. Ole Dancer was set an impossible task.

That said, I still wanted to see her do a touch more.

More broadly, the Thousand Guineas formline remains shaky. It did not look deep at the time and the cracks are widening. Apocalyptic was $1.45 in the Light Fingers and, despite running second, looked vulnerable late. Another 20 metres and she finishes fifth.

This crop of middle distance fillies still has something to prove.

Hold: Race 6 – Saint George at 2500m

The easy take will be that he did not run the trip.

I am not convinced.

He was left in front (which didn't look the plan judging by the first 200m) in a race lacking tempo and went 10 lengths below standard through the first 1700 metres. It was a crawl. Despite leading, he actually went slower early than in his two previous wins at Cranbourne and Flemington.

This was not a true staying test.

He won out to 2900 metres in the UK. I am prepared to forgive. The market may wobble. I will not (yet!).

Buy: Race 7 – Birdman

Finished fourth. Could easily have won.

The barrier always looked awkward in the small field and he never really saw daylight until it was too late. He was the last horse off the bridle and charged through the line with petrol left.

His second-up form is solid. Stick with him.

Buy: Race 8: Benedetta (and obviously Tentyris)

Tentyris was sublime. That turn of foot was devastating.

But in the noise, Benedetta’s return went under the radar.

Held up, diving late, charging at the first two through the line. She looks to have come back in terrific order. There is another Group 1 in her. The challenge, as always, is her pattern. Get back, need luck, explode late.

When it falls right, she is top class.

Buy: Race 9 – Sixties

He is the real deal.

Sat deep, absorbed pressure and monstered them, even if this was a moderate edition of the CS Hayes. That profile wins proper races.

He can give Observer, if he lines up, and Planet Red a genuine contest in the Australian Guineas.

Asakura was excellent in second at just his third start. Still green, still learning. Plenty of upside.

Sell: Race 9 – West Of Swindon

The jump-outs were plain. Saturday was plain.

Yes, he is a Group 2 Stutt Stakes winner and they will be targeting bigger races. But he will need to lift significantly on what we have seen so far this campaign.

That said, he is in the right yard to make me look foolish.

For now, I am not buying.

And one from Ballarat that I am definitely buying....

Ballarat Race 1 - Regal Ambition

2yo filly who was heavily backed on debut. Got too far back and keen off a moderate tempo before whipping home in slick late sectionals. Looked a bit of depth to this Maiden - she will be winning one before too long.

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