Buy, Hold, Sell: Sheza Alibi a freak as Randwick stars emerge

Day 1 of The Championships delivered elite racing and big performances across the card, with a stack of horses either confirming their rise or raising serious questions. Dean Watling runs the rule over the key movers out of Randwick, identifying the horses to back moving forward, those to stick with, and the ones to jump off.

Buy

The Next Episode (Race 1) - Tough watch for backers (myself included). Blundered the start and cost himself 4–5L early. Sectionally he was a clear standout late and no doubt, if he jumps cleanly, he wins.

Profoundly (Race 2) - Dominant win. Impressive third in the G3 Kembla Grange Classic and lapped up the rise to 2000m, showing more tactical speed which is key. Looked to have more left in the tank and did it off a moderate tempo. Races on the quick back-up now into the 2400m Australian Oaks and should be favourite.

Sheza Alibi (Race 8) - Looks progressive enough and can go through the grades. Happy to snap her up. (She’s a freak)

Plaintiff (Race 10) - Wow. On a day full of stars, this filly put her hand right up. First up off smart trials and produced a phenomenal sustained run to overpower her rivals from 10L+ off them last. 94.0 WFA fresh is that of a future Group winner. Can’t wait to see where she gets to.

Blitzgal (Monday / Rosehill R2) - Massive win on debut. Ran some 5L faster than R8 on the day and looked to have plenty left in the tank. Built like a beast and can only improve.

Hold

Tentyris (Race 6) - His 400–200m split was that of a horse who should have been in the finish, but his last 200m suggested his wheels were spinning. We may have learnt he’s an out-and-out dry tracker.

Sell

Jimmysstar (Race 7) - Not sure where he’s at. Plain first up at Caulfield before an okay effort in the TJ Smith. The biggest concern was his 400–200m split, around 2L inferior to most of the field bar Briasa. His final 200m was solid enough - maybe he needs further this prep? Happy to sell.

Observer (Race 9) - Sold him last week and happy to go again. Overhyped in the market this autumn.

Carbine Club Stakes (R4) - Happy to bin the race. 91.0 WFA, with the winner bringing country form. Plenty of disappointing runs.